Funyuns and Mountain Dew

HH: I think when you look at turnout out here, though, Michael, you'll see, for example, in Orange County, it's below 40%. It's like 38%. So Arnold failed to get anything going in his traditional conservative base, and my question is, can you possibly win in California without motivating the conservatives?

MB: No. I think you have to motivate your base. Obviously in California, you've got to win more than your base, these days, in order to win, if you're on a Republican side. You've got to motivate the base. I think the turnout, as I've looked at it, is bad for both...the bad news again for both parties in California. We didn't see a surge of turnout as compared to the October, '03 recall election. Turnout was down 26%. It was down in Southern California, outside L.A. County, by 26%, and in the San Francisco Bay area by 27%. So in other words, the hard left did not get out a big vote in the Bay area. The hard right did not get out a big vote in Orange County. Both sides failed to produce the kind of votes they wanted form their reservoir of voters who came out in great numbers in 2004.

HH: Thirty seconds, Michael Barone. Any message here for 2006, that favors one party over the other?

MB: I think the message is that we have not seen, despite Bush's low job ratings, a major shift in the close balance between the two parties. Having said that, a minor shift in that balance can have important political consequences, either helping or hurting Republicans.

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