Funyuns and Mountain Dew

For the first time, polling data suggests that all of Gov. Schwarzenegger's "reform agenda" slate of propositions look set to pass - and quite easily. This is a big shift from all previous polling, which suggested everything other than Prop. 75 (paycheck protection) going down to inglorious defeat.

                OCT. 4        SEP. 29
           YES  NO   UND   YES  NO   UND
Prop. 74   55%  44%   2%   43%  47%  10%
Prop. 75   60%  37%   3%   n/a  n/a  n/a
Prop. 76   58%  36%   6%   26%  63%  11%
Prop. 77   59%  36%   5%   33%  50%  17%

*note that these were two different polls, by different firms.

Are these numbers outliers, or are they connected to the long-awaited flood of pro-Schwarzenegger advertising after months of bashing at the hands of labor unions? The new pro-Schwarzenegger TV spot is particularly well made, I feel (with the woman looking straight into the camera and making the indisputable statement "Let's face it - Sacramento is screwed up!") but I doubt it could account for these massive shifts in public opinion. More likely one - or both - of these polls are bad samples. The small number of undecideds a full month before the election in the SurveyUSA poll gives me pause.

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My deal?

Right on both of those last counts. Poli Sci major who spends his free time reading Bill James.

I would love to work in politics, but truth be told, I really haven't given it much consideration. I've still got a couple years to get my act together (which I am dreading, BTW).